Skip to main content

Modelling long-term morphodynamics in practice: uncertainties and compromises.

Williams, J..J., Conduche, T. and Esteves, L.S., 2015. Modelling long-term morphodynamics in practice: uncertainties and compromises. In: Coastal Sediments 2015, 11--15 May 2015, San Diego, CA.

Full text available as:

2015 Williams et al Coastal Sediments.pdf - Accepted Version


Official URL:

DOI: 10.1142/9789814689977_0216


Two problems limit the ability of morphological models to reproduce the real-world behaviour of geomorphological systems: (a) the dominance of short-term observations which fail to capture the full character of morphological evolution and cannot quantify fully the primary phenomena and mechanisms of change; and (b) incomplete understanding of processes at all relevant scales. Present efforts to reduce uncertainty in morphological models assume that: (a) observations are the key to locate, quantify and reduce uncertainty; and (b) means used to quantify, minimise and control uncertainty will improve model performance. This paper first outlines the principles underpinning morphological model development concerning coastal sandy environments. Then it discusses the use of morphological models and considers approaches that improve predictions through reduced uncertainty. The discussion is supported by two examples that illustrate the compromises that must be reached between what a morphological model is required to predict and what the model can deliver in practice.

Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Group:Faculty of Science & Technology
ID Code:22544
Deposited By: Symplectic RT2
Deposited On:30 Sep 2015 13:00
Last Modified:14 Mar 2022 13:53


Downloads per month over past year

More statistics for this item...
Repository Staff Only -