Managing uncertainty: harnessing the power of scenario planning.

Abstract

Purpose: To provide an overview of the role that Scenario Planning can play in managing the uncertainty caused by changing and unpredictable competitive dynamics. Design/methodology/approach: This viewpoint reflects both the practical experience of strategic planners, combined with an academic insight into the advantages of using Scenario Planning as a management tool. Findings: Firms can develop Corporate Level Strategy and gain long-term certainty in their strategic approach by using Scenario Planning to strategize in a way that allows them to prepare for multiple futures, with multiple strategies. Practical implications: Firms can manage environmental uncertainty and turbulence by being ‘mentally prepared’ to address the future by evaluating the critical uncertainties driving turbulence and the strategic options relevant to a number of possible future outcomes. Social implications: Not applicable Originality/value: A unique combination of practical experience fused with academic knowledge on harnessing the power of Scenario Planning to manage uncertainty and develop organizational strategy. Keywords: Corporate Level Strategy, Managing Uncertainty, Competitive Dynamics, Strategic Planning, Scenario Planning.