Skip to main content

Forecasting global stock market implied volatility indices.

Degiannakis, S., Filis, G. and Hassani, H., 2018. Forecasting global stock market implied volatility indices. Journal of empirical finance, 46, 111-129.

Full text available as:

JoEF_post-script.pdf - Accepted Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.



This study compares parametric and non-parametric techniques in terms of their forecasting power on implied volatility indices. We extend our comparisons using combined and model-averaging models. The forecasting models are applied on eight implied volatility indices of the most important stock market indices. We provide evidence that the non-parametric models of Singular Spectrum Analysis combined with Holt-Winters (SSA-HW) exhibit statistically superior predictive ability for the one and ten trading days ahead forecasting horizon. By contrast, the model-averaged forecasts based on both parametric (Autoregressive Integrated model) and non-parametric models (SSA-HW) are able to provide improved forecasts, particularly for the ten trading days ahead forecasting horizon. For robustness purposes, we build two trading strategies based on the aforementioned forecasts, which further confirm that the SSA-HW and the ARI-SSA-HW are able to generate significantly higher net daily returns in the out-of-sample period.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:Stock market; Implied Volatility; Volatility Forecasting; Singular Spectrum Analysis; ARFIMA; HAR; Holt-Winters; Model Confidence Set; Model- Averaged Forecasts.
Group:Bournemouth University Business School
ID Code:30159
Deposited By: Symplectic RT2
Deposited On:03 Jan 2018 11:56
Last Modified:14 Mar 2022 14:08


Downloads per month over past year

More statistics for this item...
Repository Staff Only -