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An Ensemble Model for Short-Term Traffic Prediction in Smart City Transportation System.

Zheng, G., Chai, W. K. and Katos, V., 2019. An Ensemble Model for Short-Term Traffic Prediction in Smart City Transportation System. In: IEEE Global Communications Conference (GLOBECOM), 9-13 December 2019, Waikoloa, HI, USA.

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Smart city visions aim to offer citizens with intelligent services in various aspects of life. The services envisioned have been significantly enhanced with the proliferation of Internet-of-Things (IoT) technology offering real-time and ubiquitous monitoring capability. In this paper, we focus on the short-term traffic flow prediction problem based on real- world traffic data as one critical component of a smart city. In contrast to long-term traffic prediction, accurate prediction of short-term traffic flow facilitates timely traffic management and rapid response. We develop and study a novel ensemble model (EM) based on long short term memory (LSTM), deep autoencoder (DAE) and convolutional neural network (CNN) models. Our approach takes into account both temporal and spatial characteristics of the traffic conditions. We evaluate our proposal against well-known existing prediction models. We use two real traffic data (California and London roadways) with different characteristics to train and test the models. Our results indicate that our proposed ensemble model achieves the most accurate predictions (≈ 97.50% and ≈ 94.86% accuracy) and is robust against high variance traffic flow.

Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords:Smart city; Internet-of-Things; intelligent trans-portation system; short-term traffic prediction
Group:Faculty of Science & Technology
ID Code:32645
Deposited By: Symplectic RT2
Deposited On:15 Aug 2019 15:06
Last Modified:14 Mar 2022 14:17


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