The changing environment: Efficiency, vulnerability and changes in land use in the South African Karoo, 2012–2014.

Abstract

Many parts of sub-Saharan Africa are becoming increasingly vulnerable due to high temperatures and low precipitation associated with climate change. The Karoo region in South Africa is particularly at risk, and to illustrate the extent of this vulnerability survey data from white commercial farmers are used to measure levels of efficiency for three years between 2012 and 2014. A stochastic production frontier is estimated and results show that average farm level efficiency fell by 3.2% per year over the period. The performance of the top ten farmers fell by 6.5% from an average efficiency of 92%–86%. The bottom group fared much worse. Five of these withdrew from sheep farming altogether while the other five had an average decline of 24.5% in efficiency, with their scores falling from 49% to 37%. Adverse weather explains some of the decline and the continuing drought bodes ill for future farm performance. Increasingly marginal farming causes, and is exacerbated by, changes in land ownership. Other causes of land ownership changes are mixed and include the uncertainty regarding the future of land reform in South Africa. The implications of farm efficiency for land reform policy are discussed.