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ToolsLiu, A., Vici, L., Ramos, V., Giannoni, S. and Blake, A., 2021. Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team. Annals of Tourism Research, 88 (103182).
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Official URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/...
DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103182
Abstract
In a context in which the tourism industry is jeopardised by the COVID-19 pandemic, and potentially by other pandemics in the future, the capacity to produce accurate forecasts is crucial to stakeholders and policy-makers. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery of tourism demand for 2021 in 20 destinations worldwide. An original scenario-based judgemental forecast based on the definition of a Covid-19 Risk Exposure index is proposed to overcome the limitations of traditional forecasting methods. Three scenarios are proposed, and ex ante forecasts are generated for each destination using a baseline forecast, the developed index and a judgemental approach. The limitations and potential developments of this new forecasting model are then discussed.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 0160-7383 |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | COVID-19; Tourism demand forecasting; Composite index; Judgmental forecast |
| Group: | Bournemouth University Business School |
| ID Code: | 35734 |
| Deposited By: | Symplectic RT2 |
| Deposited On: | 07 Jul 2021 13:46 |
| Last Modified: | 25 Feb 2023 01:08 |
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