Changes in mangrove cover and exposure to coastal hazards in Kenya.

Abstract

Mangroves are effective carbon sinks, support coastal fisheries and provide wood and non-wood resources to coastal communities. They are threatened by natural and hu-man-induced stresses including over-exploitation, conversion pressures, pollution and climate change. Understanding changes in this important ecosystem is essential to inform the sus-tainable management of mangroves and assess the implications related to the loss of ecosystem services. This study used global remote sensing mangrove forest data to quantify changes in mangrove cover in Kenya between 2010 and 2016 and applied the InVEST coastal vulnerability model to assess the implications concerning the provision of natural coastal protection services in Kenya. Results indicate that the annual rates of mangrove cover loss in Kenya were 0.15% between 2010 and 2016. Currently, 16% of the Kenyan coastline is at higher levels of exposure to coastal hazards but this could increase to 41% if coastal ecosystems (mangroves, corals and seagrasses) are lost. The study further identified that higher rates of mangrove loss are observed in areas at higher risk of exposure in the southern and northern counties of Kwale and Lamu, where monitoring and management efforts should be prioritised.