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The Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Air Travel Demand: Some Evidence From China.

Wu, X. and Blake, A., 2023. The Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Air Travel Demand: Some Evidence From China. SAGE Open, 13 (1), 1-14. (In Press)

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21582440231152444.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.


DOI: 10.1177/21582440231152444


This paper applies a three-step framework to quantify COVID-19’s impacts on China’s domestic and international air travel demand and to evaluate how the impacts evolve from January 2020 to January 2022. Time series techniques and combination forecasting are tested to identify the best-performing model to generate baseline forecasts, with which actual demands are compared to assess the impact of COVID-19. The results demonstrate that during the period under study, China’s domestic aviation sector experienced two V-shape recoveries, while its international counterpart was devastated and showed no sign of revival. It suggests that to mitigate the impact of COVID-19, containing virus spread and removing mobility controls are essential; and when travel restrictions are lifted or loosened, governments play important roles in accelerating the rate of demand recovery.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:COVID-19; China; air travel demand; baseline forecast; demand recovery
Group:Bournemouth University Business School
ID Code:38318
Deposited By: Symplectic RT2
Deposited On:06 Mar 2023 11:12
Last Modified:06 Mar 2023 16:44


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