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The ripple effect of animal disease outbreaks on food systems: The case of African Swine Fever on the Chinese pork market.

Acosta, A., Lloyd, T., McCorriston, S. and Lan, H., 2023. The ripple effect of animal disease outbreaks on food systems: The case of African Swine Fever on the Chinese pork market. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 215, 1-8. (In Press)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2023.105912


Research on animal health economics has emphasised the importance of accounting for the indirect economic effects of animal disease outbreaks. Although recent studies have advanced in this direction by assessing consumer and producer welfare losses due to asymmetric price adjustments, potential over-shifting effects along the supply chain and spill-overs to substitute markets have been under-examined. This study contributes to this field of research by assessing the direct and indirect effects of the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak on the pork market in China. We employ impulse response functions estimated by local projection to calculate the price adjustments for consumers and producers, as well as the cross-effect in other meat markets. The results show that the ASF outbreak led to increases in both farmgate and retail prices but the rise in retail prices exceeded the corresponding change in farmgate prices. Furthermore, beef and chicken prices also rose, demonstrating the spill-over impacts of the outbreak to other markets. Overall, the evidence illustrates that a disruption in one part of a food system can have significant ripple effects across other parts of the system.

Item Type:Article
Additional Information:This research was conducted by the Livestock Policy Lab (LPL). The LPL is a science‐policy platform hosted by the Livestock Information, Sector Analysis, and Policy Branch (NSAL) of the Animal Production and Health Division (NSA) at the FAO.
Uncontrolled Keywords:Animal disease outbreaks;Food systems disruptions;Local projections;Price transmission;Ripple effects;Cattle;Swine;Animals;African Swine Fever;Pork Meat;Red Meat;Animal Diseases;African Swine Fever Virus;Disease Outbreaks;Cattle Diseases;Swine Diseases
Group:Bournemouth University Business School
ID Code:38638
Deposited By: Symplectic RT2
Deposited On:31 May 2023 16:14
Last Modified:31 May 2023 16:14


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