Analysing the role of police officer strength in the crime drop in England.

Abstract

According to evidence from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), there have been significant falls in crime levels in England and Wales since the 1990s. Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain these falls. However, there is scarce research on the role of the number of police officers in bringing about the crime drop in the UK. We fitted multilevel models to analyse the role of the number of police officers in the crime drop in England between 1991 and 2001 using a variety of data sources, including police recorded crime data, UK Census data, and police workforce data. We found that the role of police officer strength in the crime drop in England was limited to vehicle thefts, thefts from vehicle, and thefts from person. Given the relatively mixed picture, we recommend that police forces should focus on what newly recruited police officers do and where they are deployed, as opposed to becoming too focussed on the number of officers. More implications of the findings in relation to the recent Police Uplift Programme are discussed.