‘Understanding Domestic Violence and Abuse: Victim, Suspect and Crime Predictors of Police Outcomes’.

Abstract

Purpose: Domestic violence and abuse (DVA) cases remain under-reported and under-prosecuted in the criminal justice system (CJS), with researchers frequently having limited access to raw police data. Here, a range of factors relating to DVA offences occurring between 2018 and 2020 in one large English police force were described and measured. As part of the research, it was investigated if victim, suspect and crime characteristics predicted outcome decisions, specifically charge rate, case attrition, and evidential difficulties despite victims’ support in pursuing the allegations. The number of offences meeting the DVA legal definition, and those falling outside that definition, were also explored. Methods: Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to predict the relationship between demographic information and criminal history on three coded crime outcome categories (namely, ‘charge’, ‘victim does not proceed’, and ‘law does not pursue’). Results: The dataset included 198,617 crimes, and for 94.1% of them, the suspect was not charged. Relationship type, age, crime type, and the number of victim allegations predicted all three outcomes. For instance, being partners of the victim significantly decreased the chances of a charge compared to suspects who were not partners. Conclusions: The findings are in line with evidence from the literature which highlights all-time low charge rates for DVA and high levels of victim attrition. We argue that the influence of victim/suspect characteristics and DVA-related dynamics should be considered by police personnel and members of the CJS when assessing crime reports.