Increases in disadvantage and instability are associated with rising violence.

Abstract

This study explores the relationship between changes in neighbourhood characteristics and changes in violence rates across England and Wales from 2011 to 2021. Rising social disadvantage, particularly increased unemployment, poor health, lone-parent households, residential mobility, and social housing, was significantly associated with rising violence. While overall ethnic heterogeneity was not linked to violence, increases in heterogeneity were more strongly associated with violence in areas where poor health and low qualifications also rose. Growth in transport infrastructure was linked to rising violence, suggesting that increased footfall may elevate risk. Findings highlight the need to address structural inequalities through investment in housing, health, education, and community stability. Policy responses should extend beyond criminal justice to promote long-term violence reduction and community wellbeing.