"There is no risk, so long as you follow the rules": Perceptions of risk and illusion of control in matched betting.

Abstract

Matched betting, growing in popularity, is widely advertised as a risk-free, skill-based strategy exploiting bookmaker incentives to accumulate guaranteed profits. Limited research has investigated experiences of matched betting or understanding of its risks and relationship to gambling. An online survey with UK-based adults (n = 2,112) reporting engagement with matched betting generated 2,954 open-text responses to questions around whether matched betting is gambling, difficulties experienced, and losses incurred, to explore perceptions of risk, control, and potential harm in matched betting. Reflexive Thematic Analysis, supported by large language model-assisted classification to enable systematic exploration while retaining research-led interpretation, identified five themes: risk-free, skill-based and controllable; external barriers and bookmaker-imposed restrictions; mistakes, errors, and a steep learning curve; emotional impulses and vulnerability; and addiction risk and gambling harms. Participants frequently framed matched betting as not gambling, emphasizing mathematical certainty, discipline, and personal control, but also revealed financial losses, cognitive strain, emotional lapses, and shifts in responsibility from individual error and structural constraints. While many highlighted self-control to distance from harm, others acknowledged matched betting’s potential to lead to gambling harms, particularly for vulnerable individuals. This psychological ambiguity suggests claims of risk-free profit warrant closer scrutiny, with implications for harm prevention and consumer protection.