Business cycle synchronisation in EU: a time-varying approach.

Degiannakis, S., Duffy, D. and Filis, G., 2014. Business cycle synchronisation in EU: a time-varying approach. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 61 (4), pp. 348-370.

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DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.12049

Abstract

The paper investigates the time -varying correlation between the EU12 -wide business cycle and the initial EU12 member -countries based on scalar -BEKK and multivariate Riskmetrics model frameworks for the period 1980-2009. The paper provides evidence that changes in the business cycle synchronisation correspond to institutional changes that have taken place at a European level.Business cycle synchronisation has moved in a direction positive for the operation of a single currency suggesting that the common monetary policy is less costly in terms of lost flexibility at the national level. Thus,any questions regarding the optimality and sustainability of the common currency area in Europe should not be attributed to the lack of cyclical synchronisation.

Item Type:Article
ISSN:0036-9292
Subjects:UNSPECIFIED
Group:Business School
ID Code:21570
Deposited By: Unnamed user with email symplectic@symplectic
Deposited On:19 Nov 2014 11:45
Last Modified:01 Jul 2016 01:08

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