Forecasting Tourist Arrivals Using Origin Country Macroeconomics.

Chatziantoniou, I., Degiannakis, S., Eeckels, B. and Filis, G., 2016. Forecasting Tourist Arrivals Using Origin Country Macroeconomics. Applied Economics, 48 (27), pp. 2571-2585.

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DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1125434

Abstract

This study utilizes both disaggregated data and macroeconomic indicators in order to examine the importance of the macroeconomic environment of origin countries for analysing destinations’ tourist arrivals. In particular, it is the first study to present strong empirical evidence that both of these features in tandem provide statistically significant information of tourist arrivals in Greece. The forecasting exercises presented in our analysis show that macroeconomic indicators conducive to better forecasts are mainly origin country-specific, thus highlighting the importance of considering the apparent sharp national contrasts among origin countries when investigating domestic tourist arrivals. Given the extent of the dependency of the Greek economy on tourism income, but also, given the perishable nature of the tourist product itself, results have important implications for policy makers in Greece.

Item Type:Article
ISSN:1466-4283
Uncontrolled Keywords:Tourist arrivals forecasting, seasonal ARIMA, Diebold-Mariano test, disaggregated data, macroeconomic indicators.
Subjects:UNSPECIFIED
Group:Business School
ID Code:22931
Deposited By: Unnamed user with email symplectic@symplectic
Deposited On:30 Nov 2015 14:42
Last Modified:05 Apr 2016 11:52

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