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Asset prices regime-switching and the role of inflation targeting monetary policy.

Chatziantoniou, I., Filis, G. and Floros, C., 2017. Asset prices regime-switching and the role of inflation targeting monetary policy. Global Finance Journal, 32 (February), 97-112.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2015.12.002


This paper provides the empirical framework to assess whether UK monetary policy shocks induce both the UK housing market and the UK stock market to remain at a high-volatility (risk) environment. The Markov regime switching modelling approach is employed in order to identify two distinct environments for each market; namely, a high-risk environment and a low-risk environment, while a probit model is employed in order to test whether monetary policy shocks provide this predictive information regarding the current state of both markets under consideration. Our findings indicate that monetary policy shocks do indeed have predictive power on the stock market. In addition, in both asset markets there is a key role for inflation. Results are important especially within the framework of the inflation targeting monetary policy regime.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:United Kingdom; Inflation targeting; Markov regime switching; Forecasting; Asset prices
Group:Bournemouth University Business School
ID Code:23747
Deposited By: Symplectic RT2
Deposited On:25 May 2016 14:28
Last Modified:14 Mar 2022 13:56


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