Managing landscape resilience: the example of the New Forest. Wild Thing?

Abstract

Are wild landscapes relatively resilient to environmental change? This question is examined in relation to the New Forest National Park, UK. As the most extensive area of semi - natural vegetat ion in lowland England, the New Forest offers a valuable opportunity for examining resilience at the landscape scale. Evidence is provided from historical profiling, species distribution modelling, long - term monitoring and landscape - scale modelling, suppor ted by collection of empirical data. Results indicate that: (i) the New Forest has been remarkably resilient as a socio - ecological system, having withstood many internal and external shocks over the past nine centuries; (ii) the extent of woodland cover ap pears to be very resilient to multiple forms of disturbance, despite the high densities of large herbivores present; (iii) climate change will likely improve the availability and condition of habitat for some species, while adversely affecting others; (iii ) some elements of this system are currently undergoing major changes in structure and composition as a result of multiple stressors, including climate change. While this research has highlighted the resilience of the New Forest, results also suggest that the value of this landscape to both wildlife and people could be vulnerable, particularly if climate change interacts with the other novel stressors now affecting the system