Fiscal Reforms and the Fiscal Effects of Aid in Uganda.

Abstract

A dynamic relationship between foreign aid and domestic fiscal variables in Uganda is analysed using a Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive model over the period 1972-2008. Results show that aid is a significant element of long-run fiscal equilibrium, is associated with increased tax effort and public spending, and reduced domestic borrowing. Shocks to tax revenue are the pulling forces, while those to domestic borrowing, government spending and aid are the pushing forces of the system. Aid has contributed to improved fiscal performance in Uganda, although the slow growth in tax revenue and regular aid shortfalls prevented sustaining a balanced budget inclusive of aid. In terms of policy, it is crucial to increase the reliability and predictability of aid, coordinate aid delivery systems and make aid more transparent. This involves effort on behalf of donors and the government.