A multifaceted approach to spatial analysis of ecosystem services: a case study in the New Forest National Park.

Abstract

This study investigated multiple facets of Ecosystem Services (ES), utilising the New Forest National Park as the study site. The scope of the thesis begins with assessment of Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES), before exploring a range of ES in the SSSI (Site of Special Scientific Interest) in the National Park and finishing with an investigation into the implications of climate change on ES provision. CES are often highlighted as being important, though are often under-represented in ES assessments. The practical difficulties and varied methods available have been suggested to contribute to the lack of uptake of CES assessment. Stated methods of assessment (participatory GIS and stated surveys) and a behavioural method (GPS tracking) were used to ascertain differences in results. Stated response methodologies are suggested to be utilised for aesthetic assessment and behavioural monitoring methodologies for recreational assessment. Measured aesthetic and recreation values were utilised in a wider assessment of ES in the SSSI area within the National Park. Thus, the role of Protected Areas in conserving ES and biodiversity (which underpins many ES) were investigated. Multiple methods of mapping ecosystem services were adopted, including the use of the spatially explicit modelling tool InVEST, and GIS techniques. The SSSI was found to have a higher provisioning level of ES than the non-SSSI within the National Park. With this discovery for the National Park, a final analysis of the provisioning of ES with the impact of climate change was investigated within the Special Area of Conservation (SAC) within the National Park, to ascertain whether a decline could be seen. Low, medium and high climate change scenarios were used to model land change and by extension, ES provisioning change. A spatial multi-criteria analysis showed that the National Park will change extensively in species composition and thus show a decrease in ES provision in the future across all climate change scenarios investigated. Therefore, it is important that management strategies consider the uncertain impact of climate change in any decision making processes.