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Coastal flood risks in China through the 21st century – An application of DIVA.

Fang, J., Lincke, D., Brown, S., Nicholls, R.J., Wolff, C., Merkens, J-L., Hinkel, J., Vafeidis, A.T., Shi, P. and Lui, M., 2020. Coastal flood risks in China through the 21st century – An application of DIVA. Science of the Total Environment, 704 (February), 135311.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135311

Abstract

China experiences frequent coastal flooding, with nearly US$ 77 billion of direct economic losses and over 7,000 fatalities reported from 1989 to 2014. Flood damages are likely to grow due to climate change induced sea-level rise and increasing exposure if no further adaptation measures are taken. This paper quantifies potential damage and adaptation costs of coastal flooding in China over the 21st Century, including the effects of sea-level rise. It develops and utilises a new, detailed coastal database of China developed within the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) model framework. The refined database provides a more realistic spatial representation of coasts, with more than 2,700 coastal segments, covering 28,966 km of coastline. Over 50% of China’s coast is artificial, representing defended coast and/or claimed land. Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs for China are assessed for different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) combinations representing climate change and socio-economic change and two adaptation strategies: no upgrade of currently existing defences and maintaining current protection levels. By 2100, 0.7-20.0 million people may be flooded/yr and US$ 67-3,308 billion damages/yr are projected without upgrade to defences. In contrast, maintaining the current protection level would reduce those numbers to 0.2-0.4 million people flooded/yr and US$ 22-60 billion/yr flood costs by 2100, with a protection investment costs of US$ 8-17 billion/yr. In 2100, maintaining current protection levels, dikes costs are two orders of magnitude smaller than flood costs across all scenarios, even without accounting for indirect damages. This research improves on earlier national assessments of China by generating a wider range of projections, based on improved datasets. The information delivered in this study will help governments, policy-makers, insurance companies and local communities in China understand risks and design appropriate strategies to adapt to increasing coastal flood risk in an uncertain world.

Item Type:Article
ISSN:0048-9697
Uncontrolled Keywords:coastal flooding; sea level rise; risk assessment; climate change impacts; 69 China
Group:Faculty of Science & Technology
ID Code:33053
Deposited By: Unnamed user with email symplectic@symplectic
Deposited On:18 Nov 2019 14:19
Last Modified:20 Nov 2020 01:08

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