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Croatian Rural Futures in 2030: Four Alternative Scenarios for Post-socialist Countryside in the Newest EU Member State.

Lukić, A., Radeljak Kaufmann, P., Valožić, L., Zupanc, I., Cvitanović, M., Pejnović, D. and Žilić, I., 2021. Croatian Rural Futures in 2030: Four Alternative Scenarios for Post-socialist Countryside in the Newest EU Member State. Geographical Review. (In Press)

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DOI: 10.1080/00167428.2020.1871298

Abstract

The academic picture of a globalized European countryside, and particularly of rural areas in post-socialist new member states of European Union, is that of huge and increasing complexity, diversity, and uncertainties about the future. The aim of this research is to construct alternative scenarios for rural Croatia in 2030, acknowledging its post-socialist transition as an important framework. Future development scenarios were constructed by integrating quantitative and qualitative approaches. The main methods used were: factor and cluster analysis; Monte Carlo simulation; and Delphi method, involving 37 rural experts in two rounds of written questionnaires. Four scenarios were developed: Rural Renaissance; Shift; Road to Nowhere; and Growth without Development. These scenarios provide a set of well-documented and reasonable assumptions to aid in thinking about the possible future paths for the Croatian countryside, while at the same time allowing for a discussion on rural development paradigms.

Item Type:Article
ISSN:0016-7428
Uncontrolled Keywords:diversity ; neo-endogenous development ; rural ; scenario method ; typology
Group:Faculty of Science & Technology
ID Code:34899
Deposited By: Unnamed user with email symplectic@symplectic
Deposited On:30 Nov 2020 12:00
Last Modified:15 Aug 2021 08:27

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