Croatian Rural Futures in 2030: Four Alternative Scenarios for Post-socialist Countryside in the Newest EU Member State.

Abstract

The academic picture of a globalized European countryside, and particularly of rural areas in post-socialist new member states of European Union, is that of huge and increasing complexity, diversity, and uncertainties about the future. The aim of this research is to construct alternative scenarios for rural Croatia in 2030, acknowledging its post-socialist transition as an important framework. Future development scenarios were constructed by integrating quantitative and qualitative approaches. The main methods used were: factor and cluster analysis; Monte Carlo simulation; and Delphi method, involving 37 rural experts in two rounds of written questionnaires. Four scenarios were developed: Rural Renaissance; Shift; Road to Nowhere; and Growth without Development. These scenarios provide a set of well-documented and reasonable assumptions to aid in thinking about the possible future paths for the Croatian countryside, while at the same time allowing for a discussion on rural development paradigms.