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Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team.

Liu, A., Vici, L., Ramos, V., Giannoni, S. and Blake, A., 2021. Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team. Annals of Tourism Research, 88 (103182).

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DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103182


In a context in which the tourism industry is jeopardised by the COVID-19 pandemic, and potentially by other pandemics in the future, the capacity to produce accurate forecasts is crucial to stakeholders and policy-makers. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery of tourism demand for 2021 in 20 destinations worldwide. An original scenario-based judgemental forecast based on the definition of a Covid-19 Risk Exposure index is proposed to overcome the limitations of traditional forecasting methods. Three scenarios are proposed, and ex ante forecasts are generated for each destination using a baseline forecast, the developed index and a judgemental approach. The limitations and potential developments of this new forecasting model are then discussed.

Item Type:Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:COVID-19; Tourism demand forecasting; Composite index; Judgmental forecast
Group:Bournemouth University Business School
ID Code:35734
Deposited By: Symplectic RT2
Deposited On:07 Jul 2021 13:46
Last Modified:25 Feb 2023 01:08


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