Neurological Deaths in the 21st Century in 21 Western Countries: Demographics or Environmental Causes.

Abstract

Introduction: There is evidence of rising neurological deaths in the Western world. This study examines any changes during the 21st century to indicate whether the causes are primarily demographic or environmental. Method: All data based upon WHO mortality rates per million (pm) for WHO mortality categories Nervous Disease Deaths (NDD) and Alzheimer and Other Dementias Deaths (AlzD) to calculate a Combined Neurological Mortality rate for people aged 55-74 Year Olds (lower than Western life-expectancy) and AGE-STANDARDISED-DEATH-RATES (ASDR) (pm) for both sexes. Over75’s neurological deaths and population numbers analyzed to determine if increased mortality mainly due to an ageing population. Results: 55-74Year Olds: NDD rates were higher than AlzD in every country. Combined rates rose substantially in ten countries, although Canadian and French rates fell. Total ASDR: NDD and AlzD increased substantially in all countries. Highest combined rates rose from 476 per million (pm) to 973pm in Finland, followed by America 336 pm to 592 pm and UK 205 pm to 553 pm. Notable increases in numbers of deaths of 55-74-year-olds, below Western life-expectancy olds, were Austria 77%, Germany 52%, Sweden 48%, Finland 44%, America 39%, Japan 36% the UK 32% in just 16 years. Examples of major rises in Total neurological deaths was in Britain going from 24,601 to 103,550 and in America from 174,708 to 436,43, whilst Over75’s neurological deaths substantially outstripped population increases. Conclusions: Neurological death rates are accelerating at an unprecedented rate, challenging the Gompertzian hypothesis that these increases are primarily due demographics, strongly indicating multiple interactive environmental causes