Covid-19 Pandemic: Lessons from Peak Years of Influenza & Suicide Deaths by Age in Ten Western Countries 1979-2016: An alert for psychiatry and children’s services.

Abstract

Background: The IMF fears the COVID-19 pandemic will create an economic down-turn matching the Great Depression. More recent recessions have led to physical and mental health problems including suicide deaths of young adults (15 - 34). We aim to identify risk patterns of mortality by age from influenza and suicide mortality in peak years from 1979 to 2016 to see if there are lessons to be learned for policy makers and psychiatric services. Method: Using WHO mortality data for 1979-2016 peak years of influenza deaths and suicides are identified in ten Western countries. Death rates per million in each age-band are calculated for both sexes and the percentage of the total deaths accruing in each of five age-bands for influenza and suicides. Ratios of influenza to suicide by age in regard to rates and percentages of deaths indicate differential risk mortality and morbidity patterns. Results: Of the ten country’s average Influenza deaths, 95% occurred in people over 55, including 80% - 85% for the over 75’s. Conversely it was 59% of suicides occurred in peoples aged <55 years. Young adults (15 - 34) influenza to suicide ratios were 1:12.1 and 35 - 54 years ratio 1:9.3. Discussion: IMF predicts major unemployment, which is likely to create mental health problems, including suicide as well as worsening child health outcomes linked to relative poverty. These wider inter-related factors should be considered by policy-makers and mental health services. The age patterns of risk of mortality point towards a cumulative summation of morbidity and mortality risks of the socio-economic consequences of the COVID pandemic.