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Are food price promotions predictable? The hazard function of supermarket discounts.

Lan, H., Lloyd, T., Morgan, W. and Dobson, P.W., 2021. Are food price promotions predictable? The hazard function of supermarket discounts. Journal of Agricultural Economics. (In Press)

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DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12448

Abstract

Is the timing of food products going on sale, in the form of temporary price reductions, random or predictable? More specifically, are products more likely to go on sale the longer they remain non-promoted? We investigate the nature and timing of sales discounts using a large database based on weekly supermarket scanner prices covering 500 products for 137 weeks in the largest seven national retail chains in the UK. Our duration analysis of regular price spells reveals that discounting for a wide range of food products is more likely the longer they remain without a sale. However, critical differences exist between retailers following Hi-Lo or every-day-low-pricing policies, while the time-dependent pattern varies considerably across product categories, brand status and discount depth.

Item Type:Article
ISSN:0021-857X
Uncontrolled Keywords:sales, pricing policies, discounting, hazard function, supermarkets
Group:Bournemouth University Business School
ID Code:35831
Deposited By: Unnamed user with email symplectic@symplectic
Deposited On:26 Jul 2021 11:47
Last Modified:15 Aug 2021 08:30

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