Predicting climate change impacts on agriculture in the southwest United Kingdom.

Abstract

Climate change will create significant challenges to agriculture. The effects on livestock productivity and crop production are highly dependent on weather conditions with consequences for food security. If agriculture is to remain a viable industry and to maintain future food security, the adaptations and the ideal timeframes for their implementation to mitigate against climate change impacts will be essential knowledge. This study aims to show how farms will be affected and will need to adapt to climate change, based on a holistic examination of the entire farming process. A modified Bayesian belief network (BBN) was used to investigate climate change impacts on livestock, crops, soil, water use, disease, and pesticide use through the use of 48 indicators (comprising climate, agricultural, and environmental). The seasonal impact of climate change on all aspects of farming was investigated for three different climate forcing scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) for four timeframes (2030, 2050, 2080, and 2099). The results suggest that heat stress and disease in both livestock and crops will require adaptations (e.g., shelter infrastructure being built, new crops, or cultivators grown). Pest intensity is expected to rise, leading to increased pesticide use and greater damage to crops and livestock. Higher temperatures will likely cause increased drought and irrigation needs, while increasing rain intensity might lead to winter flooding. Soil quality maintenance will rely increasingly on fertilisers, with significant decreases in quality if unsustainable. Crop yield will be dependent on new crops or cultivators that can cope with a changing climate being successful and market access; failure to do so could lead to substantial decrease, in food security. Impacts are more significant from 2080 onwards, with the severity of impacts dependent on season.